On September 27, Statistics Canada released the first set of population estimates based on the 2021 Census for Canada, the provinces, and territories, including historical revisions to back to 2001. For the first time, information on the types of non-permanent residents was provided, including data on inflows and outflows.

Population growth

Ontario’s population reached 15,608,369 on July 1, 2023, with an increase of 151,294 residents during the second quarter of 2023. This compares to an increase of 98,795 people recorded in the same quarter of 2022.

Over the 12 months to July 1, 2023, the provincial population grew by 463,363 residents, an annual increase of 3.1 per cent. Over the previous 12-month period to July 1, 2022, Ontario’s population had grown by 302,518 people or 2.0 per cent.

Among the provinces, Ontario had the fifth highest population growth rate during the 12 months to July 1, 2023, after Alberta (4.1%), Prince Edward Island (3.9%), Nova Scotia (3.2%), and New Brunswick (3.1%). Canada’s population grew by 1,158,705 (3.0%) over the 12-month period.

Components of Demographic Change for Ontario
Component Q2 2022 Q2 2023 12 Months to
July 1, 2022		 12 Months to
July 1, 2023
Natural increase Total 4,914 5,670 19,270 14,874
Natural increase – Births 34,232 35,896 138,492 137,748
Natural increase – Deaths 29,318 30,226 119,222 122,874
Net migration 93,881 145,624 283,248 448,489
Migration – Net international migration 108,773 159,477 314,266 490,418
Migration – International migration – Immigration 50,804 54,933 227,424 199,297
Migration – International migration – Emigration 1,824 1,808 13,982 14,241
Migration – International migration – Net change in non-permanent residents 59,793 106,352 100,824 305,362
Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Inflow 93,575 147,253 326,393 503,923
Migration – International migration – Non-permanent resident Outflow 33,782 40,901 225,569 198,561
Migration – Net interprovincial migration −14,892 −13,853 −31,018 −41,929
Migration – Interprovincial migration – Inflow 30,838 25,077 85,879 80,684
Migration – Interprovincial migration – Outflow 45,730 38,930 116,897 122,613
Population Growth 98,795 151,294 302,518 463,363
Population Growth Rate     2.0% 3.1%

Source: Statistics Canada.

Natural increase

There were 35,896 births during the second quarter of 2023, up from 34,232 in same quarter of 2022. The number of deaths also increased, reaching 30,226 in the second quarter of 2023, compared to 29,318 over the same period of the previous year.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 5,670 in the quarter, up from 4,914 in the same quarter of 2022.

International migration

There were 54,933 new immigrants to Ontario in the second quarter, up from 50,804 in the same quarter of 2022. In the 12 months to July 1, 2023, 199,297 immigrants settled in the province, down from 227,424 in the previous year. Ontario received 42.5 per cent of all immigrants to Canada over this period, down from 46.1 per cent in the previous year.  

There were 1,808 emigrants in the second quarter, compared to 1,824 in the same quarter of 2022.

The number of non permanent residents in Ontario increased by 106,352 in the second quarter of 2023. The number of asylum claimants living in the province increased by 9,040 in that quarter. Holders of a work permit rose by 57,411, holders of a study permit grew by 14,569, and the number of those holding both a study and a work permit increased by 3,582.

There were 986,863 non-permanent residents living in Ontario on July 1, 2023, an increase of 305,362, or 44.8 per cent, over the previous 12 months.

Net Change in the Number of Non-Permanent Residents in Ontario
Net Change by Category Q2 2022 Q2 2023 12 Months to
July 1, 2022		 12 Months to
July 1, 2023
Asylum Claimants 2,018 9,040 623 21,340
Holders of Work Permit Only 27,823 57,441 14,365 162,070
Holders of Study Permit Only 16,824 14,569 62,203 60,193
Holder of Both Work & Study Permit 11,096 21,720 20,277 51,664
Other 2,032 3,582 3,356 10,095
Total Net Change 59,793 106,352 100,824 305,362
Non-Permanent Residents Living in Ontario
Number of People by Category July 1, 2021 July 1, 2022 July 1, 2023
Asylum Claimants 68,830 69,453 90,793
Holders of Work Permit Only 243,040 257,405 419,475
Holders of Study Permit Only 162,343 224,546 284,739
Holder of Both Work & Study Permit 87,865 108,142 159,806
Other 18,599 21,955 32,050
Total 580,677 681,501 986,863
Change from Previous Year −4.3% +17.4% +44.8%

Source: Statistics Canada.

Overall, there was a net international migration gain of 159,477 in the second quarter, up from a net gain of 108,773 in the same quarter of 2022. Net international migration is the sum of all new immigrants during the quarter, minus the number of emigrants, plus the net change in non-permanent residents.

Interprovincial migration

In the second quarter of 2023, Ontario saw a net interprovincial migration loss of 13,853 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net loss of 14,892 people in the same quarter of 2022. Ontario experienced net losses in its exchanges with 8 of the other 12 provinces and territories. The largest net gains were from Quebec (+353) and Manitoba (+248). The largest net losses were to Alberta (−6,765), British Columbia (−2,573). In the 12 months to July 1, 2023, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 41,929, compared to a net loss of 31,018 during the previous year.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet

Population (000s) - Estimatesfootnote 1
Region 2006 2011 2016 2020 2021 2022 2023
Canada 32,571 34,339 36,111 38,029 38,240 38,939 40,098
Ontario 12,662 13,262 13,877 14,762 14,842 15,145 15,608
Ontario as % of Canada 38.9 38.6 38.4 38.8 38.8 38.9 38.9
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.6 0.5 2.0 3.1
Population (000s) - MOF Projections footnote 2
Region 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
Canada 40,965 43,276 45,282 47,070 48,770
Ontario 16,627 17,819 19,065 20,355 21,692
Ontario as % of Canada 40.6 41.2 42.1 43.2 44.5
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3
Age distribution (%) - Estimates footnote 3
Age group 2006 2011 2016 2020 2021 2022 2023
0–4 5.4 5.4 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.7 n.a.
5–14 12.3 11.2 11.0 10.6 10.5 10.4 n.a.
15–24 13.8 13.7 12.9 12.8 12.4 12.6 n.a.
25–44 29.4 27.1 26.5 27.3 27.6 28.0 n.a.
45–64 26.0 28.3 28.1 26.7 26.5 25.9 n.a.
65–74 6.9 7.6 9.2 10.0 10.3 10.3 n.a.
75+ 6.2 6.6 7.1 7.6 7.8 8.0 n.a.
Age distribution (%) - MOF Projections footnote 2
Age group 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
0–4 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1
5–14 9.7 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.2
15–24 13.8 13.5 12.9 12.8 13.1
25–44 29.3 29.6 29.4 28.7 27.9
45–64 23.4 21.9 21.8 22.6 23.4
65–74 10.4 10.8 9.9 8.7 8.2
75+ 8.6 9.7 11.0 11.9 12.0
Selected age groups (%) - Estimates footnote 3
Age group 2006 2011 2016 2020 2021 2022 2023
0–14 17.8 16.6 16.1 15.5 15.3 15.1 n.a.
15–64 69.2 69.1 67.6 66.9 66.5 66.5 n.a.
65+ 13.0 14.2 16.3 17.7 18.1 18.4 n.a.
Selected age groups (%) - MOF Projections footnote 2
Age group 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
0–14 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.4
15–64 66.5 64.9 64.2 64.1 64.4
65+ 19.0 20.5 20.9 20.7 20.3
Other characteristics - Estimates footnote 3
Other characteristic 2006 2011 2016 2020 2021 2022 2023
Total dependency ratio (%)footnote 4 60.6 60.4 62.6 63.7 64.0 64.3 n.a.
Median age (years) 38.4 39.8 40.7 40.5 40.7 40.4 n.a.
Age span of baby boom (years) 41-60 46-65 51-70 55-74 56-75 57-76 58-77
Total fertility ratefootnote 5 1.59 1.57 1.52 1.34 1.37 n.a. n.a.
Female life expectancy at birth (years)footnote 5 83.2 84.1 84.4 84.4 84.4 n.a. n.a.
Male life expectancy at birth (years)footnote 5 78.7 79.9 80.4 79.9 79.6 n.a. n.a.
Families (000s) 3,539 3,722 3,832 4,039 4,105 4,170 n.a.
Households (000s)footnote 6 4,555 4,888 5,169 n.a. 5,491 n.a. n.a.
Other characteristics - MOF Projections footnote 2
Other characteristic 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
Total dependency ratio (%)footnote 4 64.5 68.3 69.7 70.3 70.0
Median age (years) 39.2 39.5 39.9 40.2 40.3
Age span of baby boom (years) 61-80 66-85 71-90 76-95 81-100
Total fertility ratefootnote 5 1.37 1.38 1.41 1.46 1.50
Female life expectancy at birth (years)footnote 5 85.1 85.7 86.4 87.0 87.6
Male life expectancy at birth (years)footnote 5 80.8 81.7 82.6 83.5 84.3
Families (000s) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Households (000s)footnote 6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Regional distribution (%) - Estimates footnote 3
Region 2006 2011 2016 2020 2021 2022 2023
Greater Toronto Area 45.8 47.2 47.8 48.0 47.8 47.8 n.a.
Central 22.0 21.6 21.6 21.7 21.9 21.9 n.a.
Eastern 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 n.a.
Southwestern 12.6 12.0 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 n.a.
Northeastern 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.8 n.a.
Northwestern 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 n.a.
Regional distribution (%) - MOF Projections footnote 2
Region 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
Greater Toronto Area 48.2 48.4 48.5 48.6 48.6
Central 22.0 22.2 22.3 22.5 22.6
Eastern 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.9 12.9
Southwestern 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.5
Northeastern 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.1
Northwestern 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2
Components of change (000s)footnote 1,footnote 7 — year beginning July 1
Period Population,
beginning of period		 Total change Births Deaths Natural increase
Five-Year: 2001–06 11,897 764 666 418 249
Five-Year: 2006–11 12,662 600 709 442 268
Five-Year: 2011–16 13,262 614 706 471 234
Five-Year: 2016–21 13,877 966 701 543 157
Annual: 2021–22 14,842 303 138 119 19
Annual: 2022–23 15,145 463 138 123 15
Components of change (000s)footnote 1,footnote 7 — year beginning July 1
International migration
Period Immigrants Net emigrants Net NPRs Net
Five-Year: 2001–06 653 125 44 573
Five-Year: 2006–11 558 104 58 512
Five-Year: 2011–16 519 123 87 484
Five-Year: 2016–21 605 75 221 751
Annual: 2021–22 227 14 101 314
Annual: 2022–23 199 14 305 490
Components of change (000s)footnote 1,footnote 7 — year beginning July 1
Interprovincial migration
Period In Out Net
Five-Year: 2001–06 307 336 −30
Five-Year: 2006–11 296 355 −59
Five-Year: 2011–16 339 378 −39
Five-Year: 2016–21 372 358 14
Annual: 2021–22 86 117 −31
Annual: 2022–23 81 123 −42

Note: All population figures are for July 1st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

Other Demographics Reports