Goal 3: Create and Share risk - management tools to support adaption efforts across the province and Goal 4: Achieve a better understanding of future climate change impacts across the province

Goal 3: Create and share risk-management tools to support adaptation efforts across the province

As we gain a better understanding of the effects of climate change, risk-management tools will be created and shared with communities across the province.

Risk-management tools include:

• best management practices
• guidance materials
• education and training

Over the next four years, the Government of Ontario will provide communities with tools to assist in:

• land use planning
• emergency management
• public health awareness
• water resources management
• infrastructure management

Investment in community outreach and education is critical to ensure that the available tools are effectively used to prepare for the impacts of climate change.

The Government of Ontario is also investing in education for our future decision-makers — our youth — so that they understand climate change and the importance of protecting the environment for all aspects of our economy and society.

Land use planning tools

The way communities are planned influences their level of greenhouse gas emissions and their resilience to the effects of climate change.

Land use planning in Ontario is guided by the Provincial Policy Statement (PPS) under the authority of the Planning Act. Community-focused plans, such as the Greenbelt Plan and the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, are prepared under other legislation. Municipalities make local planning decisions and prepare planning documents such as official plans and zoning by-laws.

The Province’s land use planning framework was designed to allow for the consideration of new science and information. It will be important for the Ontario government to review Provincial land use policies to ensure they are as current as possible in acknowledging and addressing emerging issues such as climate change.

In 2007, amendments to the Planning Act came into effect creating a number of new tools. These tools focus on sustainable development and include several measures which can be used for climate change mitigation and adaptation.

These amendments were followed by a series of information sheets including "Planning for Climate Change", and further supported by the release of "Building Blocks for Sustainable Planning" — a series of 12 one-page bulletins providing guidance on why and how to use these new planning tools for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Greater awareness of how to use these planning tools for adaptation to climate change at the local level will encourage widespread use.

Municipalities may use site plan control or a development permit system to require sustainable design features that support:

• water conservation
• energy efficiency
• sustainable transportation options
• improved air and water quality

In water conservation, for example, low-impact development features such as permeable pavement can promote water infiltration, reduce stormwater run-off and encourage water re-use. This will help reduce the strain on municipal wastewater infrastructure, energy use and the natural environment — and help manage the wetter climate predicted for the future.

The Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing Taking Action to Build Awareness of Land use Planning Tools

In 2010, the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing created a publicly-accessible Three Dimensional Visualization Portal on its website which provides animated views of what different land use policies can look like on the ground. This tool helps in visualizing planning and design options for sustainable, healthy and economically-resilient communities.

The ministry develops provincewide educational materials and delivers ongoing education sessions on land use planning for partner ministries, municipal planners and conservation authorities. The ministry also promotes other outreach initiatives with the development sector. More information is available at the local Municipal Services Offices.

Ontario, in a partnership with the Association of Municipalities of Ontario (AMO) and the Ontario Professional Planners Institute (OPPI), is developing a new education and outreach initiative called "Why Plan?" for municipal decision-makers. This multi-year initiative, which includes a climate change component, will draw from discussions at educational forums which began with the AMO Conference in August 2010 and OPPI Symposium in Fall 2010.

In March 2010, the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing launched a review of the Provincial Policy Statement (PPS). The PPS currently contains a number of policies with climate change mitigation and adaptation co-benefits including:

• protecting natural heritage features
• directing development outside of areas prone to flooding hazards
• promoting effective stormwater management, water conservation and efficient water use

This review of the PPS will provide an opportunity for the public, ministries, municipalities, Aboriginal communities, local and provincial organizations and other stakeholders (e.g., environmental groups, development sector) to make suggestions to further promote climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Recognizing the importance of integrating various elements of climate change adaptation and mitigation into the land use planning system, the ministry will continue efforts to ensure policy, tools and guidance materials are current by using performance measures and ongoing review.

The Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing recognizes the primary implementation role that municipalities play and is committed to regular engagement with the municipal sector, including outreach and training.

The Growth Plan for Northern Ontario, 2011 includes Environment as one of its six core themes and recognizes the need for climate change mitigation and adaptation, which is of particular importance in the North.

Average temperatures are rising more quickly in the North than in the rest of Ontario. This will alter the profile of the boreal forest and the sensitive ecology of waterways, lakes and wetlands. It threatens the region’s biodiversity, increases the risk of storms and forest fires, and shortens the transportation season for remote communities that rely on temporary ice roads to import essential supplies.

Climate change will also result in new economic opportunities, such as longer growing seasons for agricultural producers and the development of carbon offsets market.

The Plan includes two policies specifically addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation:

• 6.3.3 The Province will work with the federal government, municipalities and others to incorporate climate change mitigation and adaptation considerations, where appropriate, into planning and decision-making, including monitoring programs and tools to measure and understand climate change and its impacts on northern Ontario.
• 6.3.5 The Province will work with the federal government, municipalities and others to include measures to protect and preserve air quality, water quality and quantity, and natural heritage in planning for climate change impacts and environmental sustainability.

Emergency management tools

The Emergency Management and Civil Protection Act requires municipalities and provincial ministries to have an Emergency Management Program in place.

These programs support emergency preparedness and emergency response. They also ensure a proactive and coordinated approach to reducing risks and managing emergencies due to heat waves, tornadoes, torrential rain, flash floods, fire and human health crises.

Develop a Municipal Risk-Management Tool under the Ontario Regional Adaptation Collaborative

As part of the Ontario Regional Adaptation Collaborative, the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing will be building a web-based risk-management tool to assist municipalities in the development of adaptation strategies. More information about the Regional Adaptation Collaborative can be found in Goal 5.

Tools to support human health

Changing climate affects human health in many ways. Extreme weather such as heat waves, high winds and poor air quality can cause serious health issues for Ontarians. So does the increased presence of infectious diseases such as Lyme disease.

A combination of weather extremes — such as soaring heat coinciding with poor air quality — can create a multiplier effect, increasing health impacts. At the community level, the Government of Ontario continues to work with Public Health Units to ensure they have the tools to protect public health from risks due to climate change.

Public Health Unit

Ontarians are served by a system of 36 local boards of health that are responsible for the organization and delivery of public health programs and services, disease prevention and the promotion and protection of the health of the people of Ontario.

The Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care introduced Ontario Public Health Standards in 2009 under the authority of the Health Protection and Promotion Act.

These standards outline what is expected of the boards of health which govern the Public Health Units. The standard for prevention and management of environmental hazards specifically requires increased promotion of public awareness of the health hazards associated with climate change, including emerging health issues associated with extreme weather. A number of Public Health Units have implemented measures related to climate change — for example, heat alert systems in Toronto, London and Niagara are triggered when temperature and humidity become dangerously high.

The ministry is engaged in a range of strategic activities to increase accountability and performance of Public Health Units including the development of accountability agreements and a performance management framework.

Create a Heat Vulnerability Tool under the Ontario Regional Adaptation Collaborative

Increasingly frequent and long-lasting heat waves are a primary health concern across Ontario. Through Ontario’s Regional Adaptation Collaborative, Toronto Public Health is mapping heat intensity areas and vulnerable populations most impacted by heat events to improve the way they plan for and react to these events. More information about Ontario’s Regional Adaptation Collaborative can be found in Goal 5.

Climate Change Impacts on Air Quality

While Ontario’s air quality has improved steadily since 1988, climate change may mean negative impacts on air quality (e.g., increased smog, wildfires, pollen production); increased emissions caused by changed personal behaviours such as greater use of air conditioning is also a factor (Health Canada 2008). To track ambient (outside) air quality conditions in the province and inform Ontarians of poor air quality days, the Ministry of the Environment maintains the Air Quality Index (AQI) which reports air quality conditions and provides information on the potential impacts of air quality on public health.

Lyme disease is an emerging infectious disease transmitted to humans through the bite of an infected black-legged tick. In its early stages, Lyme disease produces flu-like symptoms. If untreated, it can become a serious illness, with severe and chronic symptoms.

The tick population which causes Lyme disease has expanded to new areas of Ontario due to warming temperatures. There has been a notable increase in the number of Lyme disease cases within Ontario since 2000 (Ontario College of Family Physicians 2008).

Currently, ticks carrying Lyme disease are found mostly in parks and conservation areas along the north shores of Lake Erie in Ontario and the St. Lawrence River, but it is possible to acquire it anywhere in the province.

Awareness of Lyme disease remains low among the general public. Lyme disease can be difficult to diagnose but the condition is preventable through improved awareness and personal protection. If contracted, this condition is curable with early diagnosis and antibiotic treatment.

The Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care (MOHLTC) is taking actions to protect the public against Lyme disease including:

• conducting surveillance for Lyme disease in human and tick populations
• working with parks and conservation authorities to post signage in areas where Lyme disease is present
• educating Public Health Units on the trends of Lyme disease across Ontario, other parts of Canada and in the United States
• implementing an educational campaign to bring greater awareness of Lyme disease, including education on:
  • how to recognize ticks and tick bites
  • the symptoms of lyme disease
  • protection measures

Materials for the "Let’s Target Lyme!" Campaign have been distributed to all Public Health Units across the province. MOHLTC will continue to work with partners and stakeholders to increase awareness of Lyme disease. The Province will also increase surveillance to identify new and expanding areas in Ontario where Lyme disease is present.

Vector-borne Disease Surveillance

Surveillance for vector-borne disease (diseases transmitted by infectious insects such as mosquitoes, ticks) such as West Nile Virus and Eastern Equine Encephalitis involves collaboration with all 36 Ontario Public Health Units in Ontario and takes place June–October each year. Each Public Health Unit conducts adult mosquito surveillance using light traps and weekly viral testing of captured mosquitoes. Public Health Units conduct local risk assessments for vector-borne diseases using a variety of factors to determine the level of risk in their health unit. Results of the mosquito surveillance are reported to the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care which reviews and analyzes them in order to determine the level of risk for the province. Analysis is reported in a weekly vector surveillance report which is sent to Public Health Units. Vector surveillance for Lyme disease involves both passive surveillance (the public submit ticks they find on themselves) and active surveillance (the ministry in the field investigating new areas for ticks and testing them for Lyme disease).

Water resources tools

Climate change is expected to increase threats to the quality and quantity of Ontario’s water. To ensure that communities have access to current information on their water resources, the Government of Ontario is developing an integrated one-window information gateway on water resources and weather patterns, making data easily accessible and available for use in adaptation planning. The Weather and Water Information Gateway is being developed by the Ministry of Natural Resources, in partnership with the Association for Canadian Educational Resources, under the Ontario Regional Adaptation Collaborative (see Goal 5).

Tools to support infrastructure design

Flooding is the leading cause of public emergency in Ontario. Flooding can damage property, interrupt critical services and lead to injury and loss of life (Conservation Ontario 2009).

A number of tools can be used to support infrastructure design as our climate changes. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are used to predict rainfall and are a critical risk-evaluation tool to support infrastructure design. Floodplain mapping identifies areas vulnerable to flooding and is used to regulate development in and around a floodplain for the protection of life and property.

IDF curves use historical rainfall patterns to project future conditions including rainfall intensities, durations and frequency of occurrence. More frequent and severe rainfall events are beginning to be reflected in precipitation records. Quality rainfall data enables designers to make calculations that meet drainage capacity design standards and avoid the over or under design of drainage elements (e.g. for roads and bridges).

In collaboration with the University of Waterloo, the Ministry of Transportation (MTO) recently developed a web-based tool for IDF curves. This information was traditionally provided in hard copy documentation at MTO District Offices. Using the latest data from Environment Canada, this user-friendly tool can provide IDF curves electronically at any location across Ontario.

MTO has identified the need to collect base data to update IDF curves, and through a joint project with Ministry of Natural Resources, is improving collection of rain gauge data in northern Ontario. The data collected will be used for flood and road condition forecasting and warnings. These gauges may be used with climate station data for verifying and updating IDF curves in Ontario.

Tools to support agriculture

Climate change presents challenges to the agricultural sector including:

• changes in the length of the growing season
• changes in the quantity and quality of water
• increased risk of soil erosion during intense storms
• introduction or expanded range of crop and livestock diseases and pests

The Environmental Farm Plan Program — part of the federal and provincial governments' comprehensive Growing Forward Framework — is a voluntary environmental education and awareness program. It encourages climate change adaptation on farms by combining training, risk assessment and technical and financial assistance for adopting Best Management Practices. Environmental risks are assessed at each participating farm and an action plan is developed to address challenges.

The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs is currently working with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, the Ontario Farm Environmental Coalition and other partners to review and update the Environmental Farm Plan Workbook. This review will ensure that Environmental Farm Plans adequately consider new risks associated with climate change and adapt to improve resilience.

Community outreach and education

The Ministry of Environment, in addition to providing risk- management tools across various sectors, is also focused on providing community outreach and education. A changing climate has significant implications at the local level and will require adaptation in different regions of the province to improve resiliency. Two programs in Ontario, the Regional Adaptation Collaborative (a joint federal-provincial program) and the Community Adaptation Initiative (a provincial program) will work with community decision-makers, within municipalities and First Nations communities, to increase adaptation knowledge and expertise at the local level.

Community adaptation initiative

The Ministry of Environment is funding the Community Adaptation Initiative to build on the outreach and training provided by the Ontario Regional Adaptation Collaborative. The Community Adaptation Initiative is a joint project launched by the Clean Air Partnership and the Ontario Centre for Climate Impacts and Adaptation Resources. This two-year program is designed to help Ontarians better prepare for climate change. Its activities include:

• hosting educational workshops in Ontario’s northern and rural communities
• hosting citizen forums to engage the public on the subject of climate change impacts and adaptation
• developing videos to share examples of how Ontario communities have begun to adapt to climate change
• developing in-depth case studies which explore some of the most promising adaptation activities in Ontario communities
• developing web-based resources to disseminate important climate information including fact sheets, climate trend data, best practices, and climate science bulletins
• hosting webinars to build adaptive capacity among members of professional associations
• hosting expert-led technical workshops to help stakeholders prepare plans to reduce the impacts of climate change in urban centres

Among the groups and individuals chosen to participate in the Community Adaptation Initiative will be municipal staff and councillors, conservation authorities, industry leaders, non-governmental organizations, local and regional professional associations and representatives of Aboriginal communities. The general public is also welcome to participate.

Ontario has demonstrated its commitment to tackle climate change through its comprehensive adaptation strategy.Paul Kovacs,
Executive Director, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction
President, Property and Casualty Insurance Compensation Corporation,
Adjunct Research Professor, Economics, The University of Western Ontario

Aboriginal communities

Aboriginal communities in northern Ontario are expected to be disproportionately affected by climate change. Outreach and training will be available to decision-makers including in these communities through the Community Adaptation Initiative.

As part of the Far North Land use Planning Initiative, the Ministry of Natural Resources will also have discussions with interested First Nations regarding the establishment of a joint body. If established, the joint body would advise on the development, implementation and coordination of land use planning in the Far North including making recommendations to the Minister on the Far North Land Use Strategy — including the use of policy statements. The Far North Act identifies climate change and adaptation as matter to consider when drafting policy statements.

Supported by the Far North Act, the Ministry of Natural Resources will continue to work with First Nations in the Far North to protect at least 225,000 km2 through community-based land use planning. Land use planning helps make wise decisions that support both conservation and environmentally sustainable economic development.

Once a community-based land use plan is initiated by a First Nations it will be jointly prepared by a joint planning team of First Nations and Ontario representatives. In preparing a community-based land use plan the joint planning team is required to taking into account the objectives of the act. The land use planning objectives in the act are:

• a significant role for First Nations in planning
• the protection of areas of cultural value in the Far North and the protection of ecological systems in the Far North by including at least 225,000 square kilometres of the Far North in an interconnected network of protected areas designated in community-based land use plans
• the maintenance of biological diversity, ecological processes and ecological functions — including the storage and sequestration of carbon in the Far North
• enabling sustainable economic development that benefits the First Nations

Advisory support for the Initiative has been provided by the Far North Advisory Council and the Far North Science Advisory Panel.

In its report the Far North Advisory Council identified the importance considering broader regional and provincial goals such as Ontario’s commitment to address climate change in land use planning in the Far North.

The Far North Science Advisory Panel’s report, "Science for a Changing Far North" (April 2010) states clearly that climate change impacts will have important implications for northern infrastructure and resource development. The impacts of climate change will vary depending on the geographic location of a community.

The report stressed the importance of the Far North Land use Planning Initiative as a way to consider the potential effects of climate change and proposes strategies for enhancing community resilience.

Education

In addition to providing on the ground outreach and education to communities, the Government of Ontario is committed to investing in environmental education — ensuring that current and future generations are educated and informed about climate change. "Acting Today, Shaping Tomorrow: A Policy Framework for Environmental Education in Ontario Schools" / "Préparons l'avenir dès aujourd'hui – La politiques d'éducation environnementale pour les écoles de l'Ontario" was released by the Ministry of Education in 2009 and provides guidance to all English- and French- language schools and boards on supporting the growth of active, engaged and environmentally-literate students.

Currently, education on climate change is addressed largely through the revised elementary science and technology curriculum and the revised secondary science curriculum. For example, in the Grade 8 Science and Technology students are expected to: identify factors (e.g., annual precipitation, temperature, climate change) that affect the size of glaciers and polar ice-caps, and describe the effects of these changes on local and global water systems.

In the Science, Grade 10 (Academic) course, students are expected to:

• analyze some of the effects of climate change around the world and assess the effectiveness of initiatives that attempt to address the issue of climate change
• investigate various natural and human factors that influence Earth’s climate and climate change
• demonstrate an understanding of natural and human factors, including the greenhouse effect, that influence Earth’s climate and contribute to climate change

Climate change concepts are also explored in The Social Studies (Grades 1-6), History and Geography (Grades 7 and 8) and Canadian and World Studies (Grades 9-12). These curriculum documents are currently under review and there may be opportunities to strengthen learning about environmental concepts, such as climate change. "Standards for Environmental Education in the Curriculum" have been implemented to ensure that, through the curriculum review process, opportunities for students to learn about climate change are considered in revised curricula as appropriate.

Some resources provided to help teachers develop classroom programs for students that address environmental education, including climate change, are:

• "The Ontario Curriculum Grades 1-8 Environmental Education Scope and Sequence of Expectations" / "Le curriculum de l'Ontario de la 1^re à la 8^e année – portée et enchaînements des attentes et contenus d'apprentissage" and "The Ontario Curriculum Grades 9-12 Environmental Education Scope and Sequence of Expectations" / "Le curriculum de l'Ontario de la 9^e à la 12^e année – portée et enchaînements des attentes et contenus d'apprentissage", were developed to enable teachers to identify where there are opportunities to integrate environmental education in each grade and subject area. (Scope and Sequence documents are updated annually, and posted electronically, with revised curriculum expectations and opportunities.)
• Teacher Guide 9-12, "Climate Change and You! Meeting the Challenge", prepared by Ontario Agri-Food Education with the support of the Ministry of Education, explains climate change and supports implementation of revised curriculum.

In addition, the ministry continues to work with many stakeholders to support learning about the environment, including climate change, through the development of curriculum-linked learning resources and professional learning opportunities.

Future vision

Public Health: The Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care will continue to monitor emerging public health issues including those related to climate change impacts, and advise the Public Health Units of emerging concerns.

The Ministry of the Environment will seek opportunities to collaborate with the Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion to identify and share best practices for protecting human health from the negative effects of climate change.

Public Outreach and Education: The Ministry of the Environment will consider ways to engage the public through outreach and education to inform Ontarians of the changing climate, associated risks and adaptive actions. Efforts will build on existing education resources, such as the Ministry of Natural Resources' Climate Change Mapping Browser. Through the Community Adaptation Initiative, the Province is also considering the use of education events such as citizen conferences/forums.

Infrastructure: The Government of Ontario is considering ways to strategically expand the number of rain gauges throughout the province to improve data collection for IDF Curves. Research may also be needed to determine if more sophisticated techniques will be required to calculate and update information such as IDF curves and extreme flow statistics in the future.

The Province is seeking a more complete and current floodplain picture for Ontario. Currently, floodplain mapping is updated by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Conservation Authorities, most often as a response to applications for new development. Up-to-date mapping of areas that are historically vulnerable to flooding is limited.

The Ministry of Natural Resources is seeking new methods to update floodplain mapping strategically and proactively in areas of the province most vulnerable to flooding.

The Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care will continue to monitor emerging public health issues including those related to climate change impacts, and will advise the Public Health Units of emerging concerns.

Goal 4: Achieve a better understanding of future climate change impacts

In the past, we have looked to historical weather records to make decisions about future actions; however, given the rate the climate is changing past conditions are not necessarily a good indicator of the future.

Governments, organizations, communities and businesses will increasingly need to use future climate projections to make decisions. This technique requires an adaptive approach to management (see Figure 5) in which decisions are routinely re-evaluated and modified to reflect emerging — often unforeseen — needs. Tools that provide the foundations for an adaptive management process include:

• Monitoring of climate impacts to assist in observing early trends and tracking historical changes
• Modelling to assist in projecting future climate trends at both a global and regional scale
• Vulnerability assessments to examine past and current conditions to determine the degree to which a system is susceptible to impacts and its capability to cope with potential impacts of climate change
• Risk assessment tools to determine the level of risk related to a situation and to recognize future threats from climate change

Figure 5: Climate Change Adaptation Framework

Steps	Requirements	Toolbox
Adaptation Decision Framework	Establish a governance structure, leadership and goals Develop partnerships Inventory what organizations are currently doing to address climate change	Asking ourselves the right questions
Vulnerability Assessment	Assess current vulnerability and explore indicators of change Develop scenarios to estimate future conditions Determine sensitivity and adaptive capacity of sectors and ecosystems to climate change	Climate modeling; environmnetal and socio-economic modeling
Risk Assessment	Determine risk rating based potential likelihood and consequence for economic, social environmental, and cultural impact	Expert knowledge; risk assessment tools
Adaptation Options	Assess options available to address risks Undertake priority actions Monitor climate change and implementation of adaptation actions	Monitoring

Monitoring

Monitoring environmental conditions — specifically by looking at water, natural resources and conditions throughout the province, including the Far North — provides a better understanding of the implications of climate change and enables better risk-based decisions in a wide variety of sectors.

Water Monitoring

Changes in climate can affect both water quantity and quality. For example, water levels in the Great Lakes are expected to be lower than they are now. Heavy rain and melting snowfall that causes flooding may happen more often. Warmer temperatures caused by climate change may increase harmful algal blooms and further change ecosystems by causing cold water fish species to migrate north.

Water Quality Monitoring

To track water quality changes, the Ministry of the Environment operates water monitoring networks in the Great Lakes, Lake Simcoe, Lake of the Woods and other inland lakes. Surface and groundwater quality are monitored, as is drinking water quality. Many partners are involved in collecting and analyzing this information to identify trends over time. Building on many years of existing information, changes in water quality resulting from climate change can be evaluated.

Under the Canada-Ontario Agreement Respecting the Great Lakes Basin Ecosystem (COA), two programs were evaluated by Conservation Ontario to determine their ability to detect the effects of climate change and to provide key data for climate and hydrologic models. This review was completed in August 2010. The programs evaluated were:

• The Provincial Groundwater Monitoring Network – Includes work with Conservation Authorities and municipalities to collect and manage information on groundwater level and groundwater quality at over 470 locations across Ontario.
• The Provincial Water Quality Monitoring Network – Collects information on surface water quality from rivers and streams at over 400 locations across Ontario.

The review found that more monitoring stations are needed in the Great Lakes Basin to detect and adapt to climate change. As well, the review recommended that monitoring programs should adopt an integrated approach that measures the components of the hydrologic cycle at one location which will provide relevant information for current and future water management.

The Government of Ontario is improving the surface water monitoring network across the province by adding new sampling programs and monitoring stations — specifically, a sampling program by the Ministry of the Environment examining the water chemistry and biology of several lakes in the Far North. The Province is also undertaking three-year study led by the Ministry of Natural Resources which aims to prioritize and install new stream gauge stations in the Far North to provide better information about climate change.

Water Quantity Monitoring

To track water quantity, the Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) works in partnership with Environment Canada and Conservation Authorities to collate information on a daily basis at the Surface Water Monitoring Centre. The Centre is located in Peterborough and operates 24/7 to manage water related hazards of flood and drought. It manages a stream gauge network which monitors real time water levels, flow data and uses climate sampling stations which provide precipitation and temperature data, surveys of snow conditions, meteorological forecasts and computer models to determine daily watershed conditions.

Watershed analysis is shared with a variety of partners. For example, a website managed by MNR provides time-sensitive data and information to water managers across the province. This work helps to predict and minimize the potential impacts of floods and low water which are expected to become more common with climate change.

Natural Resources Monitoring

The Province monitors a variety of natural resources including fish and wildlife populations and forest health. Climate change may affect habitat, species distribution and the make-up of ecosystems. The Ministry of Natural Resources is currently reviewing existing monitoring programs to improve their potential use in the detection of climate change impacts.

Wildlife Monitoring

The Ministry of Natural Resource’s wildlife monitoring programs are intended to track abundance and distribution of wildlife species. For example, the white-tailed deer have recently been spotted as far north as Sioux Lookout and Red Lake. Deer are limited in winter by snow depth and weather severity. In recent years, milder winters with less snow appear to be favouring the deer migration.

Deer carry a type of parasite called a "brainworm" which does not harm them but it can have very serious effects on moose and woodland caribou. Deer may also negatively affect caribou and moose indirectly by increasing the number of predators in their range.

Forest Monitoring

The Ministry of the Environment’s Ontario Forest Biomonitoring Network, established in 1986, monitors the effects of regional air quality on the health of mixed hardwood forest ecosystems at 104 forest monitoring plots across southern and central Ontario. In 2008, select forest monitoring plots were enhanced to monitor climate change related impacts on mixed hardwood forest health in Ontario. These include monitoring for:

• various soil and meteorological parameters — air temperature, soil temperature, rainfall, soil moisture, snow depth, relative humidity, light and tree trunk temperature
• plant and song bird phenology or life cycle events — flowering and leafing times of target plant species and arrival of target migratory birds
• downed woody debris and seedling regeneration, understory diversity monitoring and salamander populations

The Canadian Forest Service and the Ministry of Natural Resources have established National Forest Inventory sample plots across Ontario. These plots will assist in understanding baseline forest condition and cumulative climate change impacts.

Land Cover Monitoring

The Ministry of Natural Resources analyzes satellite imagery to look at the state of land cover, map disturbances and land use changes. Data from satellite imagery are essential for studying the impacts of climate variability and climate change on the Earth’s surface. This information can be used to provide reliable and up-to-date inventory and monitoring information at a provincial level. The Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs performs similar analysis focusing on farming operations.

Traditional Knowledge

People living in remote Far North First Nations communities depend on fish and wildlife for food and to support their traditional lifestyles. Working with Trent University, the Ministry of Natural Resources implemented a graduate student research project to examine Traditional Knowledge from two First Nation communities in the Hudson Bay Lowland (Moose Cree and Weenusk Cree) to identify trends in goose population abundance, migration and harvest over time. Understanding the impacts of climate change on these natural assets is needed to help the communities identify and establish adaptation actions.

Far North Monitoring

As snow melts and the bare ground begins to absorb more of the sun’s heat, the Far North of Ontario is heating up faster than other regions. The Far North supports a globally significant biological pool of carbon and its peatlands are unique in that they actively capture and store carbon for thousands of years.

There is great uncertainty around how the Far North ecosystem will respond to human development due to a lack of basic data and of projected impacts of climate change. Further action is required to ensure that regional and local estimates of climate change can be established and modelled reliably.

Monitoring of water quality, aquatic ecosystems and many other baseline conditions are critical to land use planning processes and resource management. New initiatives in the Far North include:

• the Far North Monitoring Network, established by the Ministry of Natural Resources, has stations for long-term monitoring of climate variables — peat temperature and moisture, permafrost temperature and water table depth — at two sites near Hudson’s Bay (this monitoring network will be expanded in future years)
• the two carbon flux monitoring stations in the Hudson Bay Lowlands established by the Ministry of the Environment to better understand carbon cycling in the Far North and how climate change may be affecting this important carbon store
• the addition of new sampling programs and monitoring stations on lakes and streams in the Far North (see Water Quality Monitoring above)

Peatland Carbon Storage

The Ministry of Natural Resources is undertaking peatland carbon storage and sequestration research, through remote sensing and field work, to better understand how peatlands store carbon. The project also involves partnerships with the Canadian Forest Service, University of Toronto and Ministry of the Environment to study how historical water and fire activity may impact the ability of peatlands to store carbon. It is expected that the findings from this research will help scientists better understand the present and future climate impacts on peatland carbon storage and sequestration in the Hudson Bay Lowlands.

Peatland Modelling

Due to their remote location, information on watersheds, elevation and hydrology in the northern peatlands remains scarce. Hydrological cycles (water cycles) in these lands influence the region’s ability to store or release greenhouse gases. As a result, Ontario’s Far North Science Advisory Panel has identified a critical need to expand knowledge of this region.

The Government of Ontario initiated hydrological and geospatial modelling for peatlands in the Far North to better understand the hydrology of this sensitive ecosystem. This can help us better prepare for climate change impacts and inform decisions when assessing the ecological impacts of renewable energy or development proposals, drinking water source protection, as well as community and land use planning.

Agricultural Monitoring

The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs is engaged in a number of monitoring activities which identify the effects of climate change in the agricultural sector. For example:

• Warmer winters will provide conditions for the spread of soybean rust. The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs is involved with the North American Soybean Rust Sentinel Plot Network which coordinates monitoring for early detection of soybean rust for the soybean production areas of North America. Information gathered throughout Ontario contributes to monitoring and forecasting efforts. The Network provides predictive models and technical resource material for the soybean producers to ensure they are prepared to make sound risk-management decisions.
• The range of the Western Bean Cutworm, which affects corn and dry bean crops, is expanding. The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs monitors over 400 traps weekly, surveys crops, establishes field plots to investigate pest management options and disseminates educational resources to growers.
• The Spotted Wing Drosophila, a fruit crop pest originating in Asia, first appeared in North America in 2008. The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs is collaborating with the Canadian Food Inspection Agency to monitor this pest as it could pose an economic threat to Ontario’s berry, grape and tender fruit production.

Climate science-based decisions now are smart investments for the future. Our infrastructure needs to be climate smart. Gordon McBean,
Climate scientist

Climate indicators

In addition to using existing environmental monitoring programs, the Ministry of the Environment will track economic trends through use of various sector-specific indicators (i.e., golf course open/ closing dates, increased/decreased yields by agricultural product, sales of ski lift passes, etc.). Social trends will be tracked through use of social and health indicators (i.e., number of heat alert days, reported respiratory distress instances, municipal water-use restrictions, etc.). These indicators allow the Province to track direct impacts of climate change on different sectors and portions of our society. This data will be used in conjunction with available climate monitoring data to derive overall trend analysis.

As climate adaptation initiatives are employed, climate impact indicators can also be used to track and assess the success of government policy and programs as outlined in Ontario’s Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan.

Modelling

Climate change models are used to project future climate and to better understand the scale of associated impacts of climate change.

Global climate models can be downscaled to help us better understand climate impacts at a regional or local scale. While these models have limitations, they are an important tool to inform the development of adaptation actions.

The Expert Panel highlighted the importance of enhancing Ontario’s climate science and climate modelling capacity in order to project future climate and its impacts. It recommended accessing the best available regional climate projections and working in partnerships across ministries, agencies, municipalities and non-government stakeholders.

Modelling of climate impacts is an emerging area of work for the Province. As models have become more sophisticated and accurate, the Ontario government has been working to build its capacity to identify suitable models and run scenarios that help identify geographic and sector-specific impacts to assist in prioritizing action.

The Ministry of the Environment has invested in a series of valuable partnerships to support science-based decision-making in light of climate change. Work is currently focused on fostering these partnerships, increasing knowledge and exploring options for modelling climate change and developing future climate scenarios for Ontario.

To achieve this goal, the Government of Ontario is funding work by different research institutions to downscale projections of climate change indicators — this means taking global climate models (projections over hundreds of kilometres) and applying them to the regional/local scale (projections over tens of kilometres), using state-of-the-art climate modelling techniques.

The accuracy of models is often limited, especially in northern Ontario, due to the data and information that can reliably provide calibration and validation of the model results. To better assess uncertainties in future climate projections, the Province will consider the results from a number of climate models and/or scenarios. The results will provide a clearer picture for all of us as to the local impacts that climate change will have on our communities, health and industries.

The Ministry of the Environment has partnered with the following institutions:

• OURANOS Modelling Consortium — to better understand the horizontal distribution and trends of major climate change indicators over Ontario through combined downscaling using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) at 45km resolution.
• University of Regina — to better understand the horizontal distribution and trends of major climate change indicators over Ontario through combined downscaling using the United Kingdom (UK) Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) model at 25km resolution. Probabilistic Climate Change Projections can be found on the University of Regina website. Efforts currently underway to further downscale to 10km resolution from additional modelled scenarios, with results expected by spring 2011.
• University of Toronto/SciNet — to model Ontario’s climate change at 10 km resolution over the province using the United States Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model on the SciNet Supercomputer System. Researchers will also use statistical downscaling of applicable International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Global Climate Models and scenarios over Ontario to produce projections of climate change indicators at annual, seasonal and monthly scales. Results are expected by spring 2011.
• York University — to investigate future climate change over Ontario and its impacts on air quality using high resolution regional climate and air quality models; and extreme wind trends analysis over Ontario using North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) high-resolution reanalyzes data. Results are expected by spring 2011.

Existing models are beginning to be applied as a risk-management tool in resource management to predict climate change impacts such as precipitation and temperature. For example:

• The Ministry of the Environment is exploring partnerships with universities to link hydrologic models with climate models to better understand the local impacts of climate change on our water resources.
• The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Canadian Forest Service are using climate models to project future climatic conditions for use in support of vulnerability and risk assessments and in the design of adaptation options for forest management.

Assessing uncertainty is an absolutely crucial first step towards effective climate adaptation decision-making. David Lapp,
P.Eng, Engineers Canada

Climate Change Mapping Browser

As an educational tool for the public, the Ministry of Natural Resources developed the Climate Change Mapping Browser to show how Ontario’s climate might be very different in the future. This on-line tool, released in 2007, projects temperature and precipitation patterns based on human activities and greenhouse gas emissions and can be accessed through the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry website.

Agricultural Use of Climate Models

The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs continues to build on its wealth of over 70 years of soil information collected at the county level across the province by looking at innovative ways to use this data. One use is as a basic input to climate modelling to predict changes including erosion sensitivity, infiltration amounts, run off rates, carbon distribution and evapotranspiration. The ministry also uses weather modelling in the development of integrated pest management recommendations.

Through early dialogue with key partners, we have heard consistently that governments have a critical role to play in filling information gaps, including high quality climate projections to build understanding and inform decision-making across the public and private sectors. Specifically, there is a need for information on the potential future impacts of climate change at the local level. Models that project potential future climate scenarios at a regional level could assist in gaining this information.

To strengthen climate science and deliver user-friendly products, the Ontario government is establishing a Climate Modelling Collaborative to leverage partnerships and resources that would bring together a wide range of modelling capabilities — from the scientific and technical to policy and program perspectives — to inform policy development within the province.

This collaborative would be guided by the Ministry of the Environment and include representatives from a wide range of ministries and key government agencies impacted by climate change, including: Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, Ministry of Infrastructure, Ministry of Transportation, Ministry of Natural Resources, Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs and others.

Future vision

Monitoring: The Government of Ontario will continue to assess existing monitoring programs and work to integrate climate change indicators. Future monitoring programs may benefit from a number of initiatives including:

• examining existing data sets from water quality monitoring networks to evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources, in partnership with other government agencies and academia
• investigating the installation of several integrated climate-stream water-groundwater monitoring stations in the Far North and in sensitive areas of southern Ontario
• considering methods for growing the stream gauge network as some areas of the province are not adequately covered

Modelling: The Climate Modelling Collaborative for the Ontario Public Service could improve the coordination and sharing of modelling activities across government and set priorities for government investment in climate research in a transparent and fair manner.