Note: No quantitative data inform the graphics presented in Figure 5, Figure 7, Figure 8, Figure 9, Figure 10, Figure 11, Figure 12, Figure 28

Figure 1: Total Ontario Fuels Energy Demand

Data Table for Figure 1: Total Ontario Fuels Energy Demand
Fuels Demand (PJ) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Residential 421 393 433 436 415 412 439 398 445 445 447
Commercial 249 226 239 239 230 224 234 215 239 215 215
Transportation 876 855 870 862 859 892 900 878 915 918 927
Industrial 831 818 801 769 666 673 674 680 690 749 750
Industrial Non-Energy Fuel Use 238 275 283 279 235 276 260 274 245 247 246
Electricity Generation 497 427 479 444 237 345 326 264 194 129 128

Figure 2: Fuels Energy Demand by Sector 2005 and 2015

Data Table for Figure 2: Fuels Energy Demand by Sector 2005 and 2015
Fuels Demand (PJ) 2005 2015
Residential 421 447
Commercial 249 215
Transportation 876 927
Industrial 831 750
Electricity Generation 497 128

Figure 3 and Figure 4: Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2005 and 2015

Data Table for Figure 3 and Figure 4: Fuels Demand by Fuel Type 2005 and 2015
Fuels Demand (PJ) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Natural gas 1,037 964 1,012 1,009 927 973 1,111 1,008 1,041 966 963
Coal 381 314 359 326 128 160 67 58 43 24 24
Motor gasoline 549 538 527 521 541 555 545 508 541 525 524
Diesel 270 254 255 256 242 260 273 269 272 289 294
Fuel Oil 90 86 96 72 57 52 55 46 46 47 46
Wood and Biomass 144 136 122 122 102 113 113 111 134 89 91
Propane and NGL 34 46 51 54 55 65 50 54 43 52 54
Biofuels 7 12 22 26 27 31 34 35 35 33 33
Other Heating Fuels 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other Industrial Fossil Fuels 258 267 267 258 243 243 237 242 216 315 317
Other Transportation Fuels 103 103 110 104 86 93 89 105 113 116 120
Industrial Non-Energy Fuel Use 238 275 283 279 235 276 260 274 245 247 246

Figure 6: Dawn Storage

Data Table for Figure 6: Dawn Storage
Month PJ
11-Jan 89
11-Feb 49
11-Mar 44
11-Apr 42
11-May 50
11-Jun 73
11-Jul 87
11-Aug 95
11-Sep 125
11-Oct 143
11-Nov 142
11-Dec 140
12-Jan 123
12-Feb 96
12-Mar 92
12-Apr 100
12-May 113
12-Jun 128
12-Jul 124
12-Aug 123
12-Sep 137
12-Oct 144
12-Nov 135
12-Dec 130
13-Jan 114
13-Feb 78
13-Mar 52
13-Apr 29
13-May 37
13-Jun 58
13-Jul 71
13-Aug 86
13-Sep 106
13-Oct 139
13-Nov 141
13-Dec 101
14-Jan 60
14-Feb 28
14-Mar 18
14-Apr 18
14-May 29
14-Jun 44
14-Jul 69
14-Aug 97
14-Sep 126
14-Oct 153
14-Nov 154
14-Dec 143
15-Jan 104
15-Feb 54
15-Mar 24
15-Apr 26
15-May 39
15-Jun 56
15-Jul 78
15-Aug 94
15-Sep 123
15-Oct 153
15-Nov 162
15-Dec 162
16-Jan 141
16-Feb 109
16-Mar 95
16-Apr 90

Figure 13: Ontario Residential Fuels Demand - 2015

Data Table for Figure 13: Ontario Residential Fuels Demand - 2015
Fuels Demand (PJ) Year 2015
Residential 447
Commercial 215
Transportation 927
Industrial 750
Electricity Generation 128

Figure 14: Residential Demand by Fuel Type: 2005-2015

Data Table for Figure 14: Residential Demand by Fuel Type: 2005-2015
Fuel Type 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Fuel Oil 35 31 33 28 29 30 26 23 25 25 24
Natural Gas 341 313 351 356 334 322 356 315 364 367 369
Propane 8 11 12 13 14 16 12 13 10 11 13
Wood 38 36 36 38 38 43 45 47 46 42 41

Figure 15: Residential Fuels Energy Use Per Square Metre of Floor-Space

Data Table for Figure 15: Residential Fuels Energy Use Per Square Metre of Floor-Space
Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Residential Energy Intensity (GJ/m2) 0.72 0.66 0.72 0.71 0.67 0.65 0.68 0.60 0.66 0.65 0.64

Figure 16: Commercial Fuel Demand - 2015

Data Table for Figure 16: Commercial Fuel Demand - 2015
Fuels Demand (PJ) 2015
Residential 447
Commercial 215
Transportation 927
Industrial 750
Electricity Generation 128

Figure 17: Commercial Demand by Fuel Type: 2005-2015

Data Table for Figure 17: Commercial Demand by Fuel Type: 2005-2015
Fuel Type 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Fuel Oil 15 10 8 5 4 3 4 3 3 2 2
Natural Gas 221 199 212 214 207 198 214 195 222 200 200
Propane 12 16 18 19 19 22 17 18 14 13 13
Renewable Natural Gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Figure 18: Commercial Fuels Energy Use Per Square Metre of Floor-Space

Data Table for Figure 18: Commercial Fuels Energy Use Per Square Metre of Floor-Space
Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Energy Intensity (GJ/m2) 1.00 0.89 0.92 0.90 0.85 0.82 0.85 0.77 0.84 0.75 0.74

Figure 19: Industrial Fuel Demand - 2015

Data Table for Figure 19: Industrial Fuel Demand - 2015
Fuels Demand (PJ) 2015
Residential 447
Commercial 215
Transportation 927
Industrial 750
Electricity Generation 128

Figure 20: Industrial Energy Demand by Fuel Type: 2005-2015

Data Table for Figure 20: Industrial Energy Demand by Fuel Type: 2005-2015
Fuel 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Fuel Oil 39 36 39 34 22 15 17 15 16 20 20
Natural Gas 364 348 338 322 274 268 278 284 294 282 281
Propane & NGL 10 14 15 16 16 21 15 15 13 22 23
Coal, Coke, and Coke Gas 177 175 173 165 163 155 157 161 153 243 244
Other Industrial Fuels 102 102 93 88 67 73 73 68 94 47 47
Still Gas 81 89 94 92 83 89 86 90 69 84 85
Diesel & Gasoline 58 56 50 52 41 52 47 47 51 50 51

Figure 21: Non-Energy Industrial Demand by Type: 2005-2015

Data Table for Figure 21: Non-Energy Industrial Demand by Type: 2005-2013
Fuel 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Natural Gas 19 21 19 26 29 20 28 28 15 14 15
Propane & NGL 56 87 104 96 84 118 121 124 124 120 126
Coal, Coke, and Coke Gas 162 167 161 156 121 139 111 122 105 113 106

Figure 22: Industrial Fuels Energy Use Per $1,000 of Economic Output

Data Table for Figure 22: Industrial Fuels Energy Use Per $1,000 of Economic Output
Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Industrial Energy Intensity (GJ/$1000) 2.97 2.92 2.86 2.74 2.38 2.40 2.41 2.43 2.46 2.68 2.68

Figure 23: Transportation Energy Fuel Demand - 2015

Data Table for Figure 23: Transportation Energy Fuel Demand - 2015
Fuels Demand (PJ) Year 2015
Residential 447
Commercial 215
Transportation 927
Industrial 750
Electricity Generation 128

Figure 24: Transportation Demand by Fuel Type: 2005-2015

Data Table for Figure 24: Transportation Demand by Fuel Type: 2005-2015
Fuel 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Motor Gasoline 536 524 518 512 532 540 533 498 531 515 514
Diesel 225 211 214 213 210 222 238 232 231 249 254
Fuel Oil 10 10 10 10 7 12 8 10 14 13 14
Aviation Fuel 93 93 101 94 79 81 80 95 99 102 105
Propane 4 5 6 6 5 6 7 8 6 5 5
Biofuels 7 12 22 26 27 31 34 35 35 33 33
Other Transportation Fuels 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2

Figure 25: Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency Improvements – 2005 to 2015

Data Table for Figure 25: Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency Improvements – 2005 to 2015
  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency (km/GJ) 270 268 271 277 278 281 285 289 293 298 302

Figure 26: Historical Ontario GHG Emissions

Data Table for Figure 26: Historical Ontario GHG Emissions
  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Industrial Energy Use 27 27 27 26 23 23 24 24 23 24 24
Commercial Energy Use 13 11 12 12 11 11 12 11 12 13 13
Residential Energy Use 21 19 21 21 20 19 21 18 20 22 22
Transportation 65 62 61 59 59 61 61 58 61 60 60
Electricity Generation 35 30 33 27 15 20 14 14 10 6 6
Fugitive 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
Industrial Non-Energy Use 28 29 28 28 21 23 21 23 22 22 22
Agricultural 11 12 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12
Waste 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 9

Figure 27: Demand Uncertainty

Data Table for Figure 27: Demand Uncertainty
Year Lower Bound Upper Bound
2015 2,334 2,338
2016 2,355 2,368
2017 2,333 2,354
2018 2,325 2,363
2019 2,309 2,364
2020 2,293 2,369
2021 2,269 2,363
2022 2,249 2,364
2023 2,211 2,350
2024 2,185 2,351
2025 2,155 2,345
2026 2,122 2,343
2027 2,089 2,338
2028 2,058 2,339
2029 2,029 2,339
2030 2,000 2,347
2031 1,964 2,344
2032 1,935 2,353
2033 1,901 2,355
2034 1,870 2,364
2035 1,843 2,377

Figure 29: Five Fuels Energy Demand Outlooks

Data Table for Figure 29: Five Fuels Energy Demand Outlooks
Year FTR Outlook B FTR Outlook C FTR Outlook D FTR Outlook E FTR Outlook F
2015 2,338 2,338 2,338 2,336 2,334
2016 2,368 2,363 2,363 2,360 2,355
2017 2,354 2,346 2,346 2,342 2,333
2018 2,363 2,347 2,344 2,341 2,325
2019 2,364 2,341 2,333 2,332 2,309
2020 2,369 2,334 2,322 2,324 2,293
2021 2,363 2,319 2,302 2,307 2,269
2022 2,364 2,310 2,287 2,296 2,249
2023 2,350 2,282 2,254 2,266 2,211
2024 2,351 2,266 2,231 2,249 2,185
2025 2,345 2,246 2,206 2,228 2,155
2026 2,343 2,225 2,177 2,205 2,122
2027 2,338 2,205 2,147 2,183 2,089
2028 2,339 2,185 2,121 2,162 2,058
2029 2,339 2,165 2,095 2,141 2,029
2030 2,347 2,153 2,069 2,127 2,000
2031 2,344 2,129 2,037 2,102 1,964
2032 2,353 2,115 2,011 2,086 1,935
2033 2,355 2,093 1,981 2,064 1,901
2034 2,364 2,080 1,954 2,049 1,870
2035 2,377 2,070 1,931 2,037 1,843

Figure 30: Sectoral Breakdown of Energy Demand by Outlook, 2015 vs 2035

Data Table for Figure 30: Sectoral Breakdown of Energy Demand by Outlook, 2015 vs 2035
Energy (PJ) 2015 Outlook B 2035 Outlook C 2035 Outlook D 2035 Outlook E 2035 Outlook F 2035
Residential 447 498 388 322 381 303
Commercial 215 233 192 177 187 147
Transportation 927 975 883 883 878 874
Industrial 750 671 607 550 591 519

Figure 31: Residential Outlook

Data Table for Figure 31: Residential Outlook
  2015 2025 2025 2025 2035 2035 2035
  All Outlooks Outlook B Outlook D Outlook F Outlook B Outlook D Outlook F
Fuel Oil 24 19 4 4 21 1 0
Natural Gas 369 388 368 324 400 270 188
Propane 13 24 4 3 28 0 0
Wood 41 45 45 44 50 50 49
Renewable Natural Gas 0 0 0 34 0 0 66

Figure 32: Commercial Outlook

Data Table for Figure 32: Commercial Outlook
Fuel Type 2015 2025 2025 2025 2035 2035 2035
  All Outlooks Outlook B Outlook D Outlook F Outlook B Outlook D Outlook F
Fuel Oil 2 1 0 0 1 0 0
Natural Gas 200 203 203 170 213 173 103
Propane 13 16 3 3 19 4 3
Renewable Natural Gas 0 0 0 19 0 0 42

Figure 33: Industrial Outlook

Data Table for Figure 33: 2015 Industrial Outlook
Fuel Type All Outlooks
Fuel Oil 19.866144
Natural Gas 280.633569
Propane and NGL 22.567716
Still Gas 84.87631
Renewable Natural Gas 0
Motor Gasoline 10.15183
Other Industrial Fuels 71.030867
Diesel 40.427442
Petroleum Coke 45.311643
Coke and Coke Gas 175.053126
Data Table for Figure 33: 2025 Industrial Outlook
  Outlook B Outlook C Outlook D Outlook E Outlook F
Fuel Oil 19.016307 17.514665 15.877528 17.490896 15.829337
Natural Gas 260.168313 241.154722 223.957144 223.7131628 190.2477088
Propane and NGL 25.113612 24.692192 24.008431 24.662534 23.948284
Still Gas 85.392016 84.173868 84.10331 82.529726 80.769459
Renewable Natural Gas 0 0 0 10.59788019 20.47870618
Motor Gasoline 10.159345 10.159345 10.159345 10.159345 10.159345
Other Industrial Fuels 58.717391 56.130419 52.634825 56.130419 52.634825
Diesel 38.239202 37.713737 37.274744 37.713737 37.274744
Petroleum Coke 42.143927 40.084861 37.70454 39.829177 37.18606
Coke and Coke Gas 147.323185 147.323185 147.323185 147.323185 147.323185
Data Table for Figure 33: 2035 Industrial Outlook
  Outlook B Outlook C Outlook D Outlook E Outlook F
Fuel Oil 18.720752 15.18742 12.973354 15.148198 12.894112
Natural Gas 260.479752 220.036202 195.49074 184.32193 123.9732746
Propane and NGL 24.036979 22.80212 18.627087 22.750703 18.523223
Still Gas 84.778394 79.423452 79.351014 76.602944 73.65312
Renewable Natural Gas 0 0 0 22.94206895 47.5158864
Motor Gasoline 10.116254 10.116254 10.116254 10.116254 10.116254
Other Industrial Fuels 56.627656 50.067539 32.925858 50.067539 32.925858
Diesel 36.945229 35.878466 35.564369 35.878466 35.564369
Petroleum Coke 41.336194 35.844546 26.696091 35.468392 25.936198
Coke and Coke Gas 137.952812 137.952812 137.952812 137.952812 137.952812

Figure 34: Transportation Outlook

Data Table for Figure 34: 2015 Transportation Outlook
  All Outlooks
Motor Gasoline 514.072731
Diesel 253.777706
Fuel Oil 14.118851
Aviation Fuel 104.509483
Propane 5.215308858
Transportation Natural Gas 1.65589
Biodiesel 5.456728
Ethanol 27.76064473
Hydrogen 0
Data Table for Figure 34: 2025 Transportation Outlook
  Outlook B Outlook D Outlook F
Motor Gasoline 466.584984 451.480492 421.761254
Diesel 295.266263 294.944136 238.017392
Fuel Oil 15.781864 15.781864 15.781864
Aviation Fuel 134.071142 134.071142 134.071142
Propane 4.733541878 4.733521878 9.115616878
Transportation Natural Gas 13.490652 13.490651 33.112549
Biodiesel 6.355876 6.348413 42.798573
Ethanol 25.19624013 24.58017213 40.37833913
Hydrogen 0 0 4.333486
Data Table for Figure 34: 2035 Transportation Outlook
  Outlook B Outlook D Outlook F
Motor Gasoline 408.126108 323.402718 272.004324
Diesel 325.820017 322.119697 216.517476
Fuel Oil 15.579734 15.579734 15.579734
Aviation Fuel 158.770047 158.770047 158.770047
Propane 4.140471918 4.137289918 11.13959992
Transportation Natural Gas 33.224136 33.224046 67.449234
Biodiesel 6.992315 6.906569 76.566257
Ethanol 22.03937927 18.50352027 48.89757827
Hydrogen 0 0 6.908804

Figure 35: Conservation Achievement and Outlook to 2035 (Outlook B)

Data Table for Figure 35: Conservation Achievement and Outlook to 2035 (Outlook B)
Year Residential NG Commercial NG Industrial NG Motor Gasoline Diesel
2015 3 1 3 0 0
2016 6 2 6 0 0
2017 8 2 9 1 0
2018 12 3 12 2 1
2019 15 5 16 4 2
2020 18 6 19 7 2
2021 19 6 18 11 3
2022 20 7 20 17 3
2023 21 7 22 24 4
2024 23 8 25 32 4
2025 24 9 27 41 5
2026 26 10 29 51 5
2027 28 11 32 59 6
2028 31 12 34 69 6
2029 34 13 37 77 6
2030 37 14 40 86 6
2031 38 15 42 93 7
2032 41 16 45 101 7
2033 43 17 47 107 7
2034 45 17 50 113 7
2035 47 18 52 118 7

Figure 36: Alternative Fuels in 2035 – Outlook B and F

Data Table for Figure 36: Alternative Fuels in 2035 – Outlook B and F
Fuel Outlook B Outlook F
Conventional Fuel 2,310 1,477
Alternative Fossil Fuel 37 85
Alternative Biofuel 29 281
Total 2,377 1,843

Figure 37: Outlook F Alternative Fuel Breakdown

Data Table for Figure 37: Outlook F Alternative Fuel Breakdown
Fuel 2020 2025 2030 2035
Residential RNG 4 34 69 66
Commercial RNG 2 19 42 42
Transportation Propane 8 9 10 11
Transportation Natural Gas 17 33 49 67
Transportation Biodiesel 26 43 60 77
Transportation Ethanol 36 40 44 49
Transportation H2 3 4 6 7
Industrial RNG 3 20 44 48

Figure 38: Fuels Combustion GHG Emissions Outlook

Data Table for Figure 38: Fuels Combustion GHG Emissions MT of CO2e per Outlook
Year Outlook B Outlook C Outlook D Outlook E Outlook F
2015 122 122 122 121 121
2016 123 123 123 122 121
2017 123 122 122 121 120
2018 123 122 122 121 119
2019 123 122 121 120 117
2020 124 122 121 119 116
2021 123 121 120 118 114
2022 123 120 119 117 112
2023 123 118 117 114 108
2024 122 117 116 113 106
2025 122 116 114 110 102
2026 122 115 112 108 99
2027 121 113 111 106 95
2028 121 112 109 104 92
2029 121 111 107 103 90
2030 122 110 106 101 87
2031 122 109 104 99 84
2032 122 108 103 98 82
2033 122 106 101 96 80
2034 122 106 99 95 77
2035 123 105 98 94 75

Figure 39: Emissions Relative to 2014 Levels

Data Table for Figure 39: Emissions Relative to 2014 Levels for 2025
Fuel Outlook B Outlook C Outlook D Outlook E Outlook F
Transportation 1 -1 -2 -2 -4
Residential 0 -1 -1 -1 -2
Commercial 3 2 2 -1 -4
Industrial -4 -5 -6 -6 -8
Data Table for Figure 39: Emissions Relative to 2014 Levels for 2035
Fuel Outlook B Outlook C Outlook D Outlook E Outlook F
Transportation 2 -4 -7 -6 -11
Residential 1 -1 -2 -3 -6
Commercial 3 -3 -3 -9 -14
Industrial -4 -8 -11 -10 -15

Figure 40: Total Cost of Fuels for Energy in Outlook B

Data Table for Figure 40: Total Cost of Fuels for Energy in Outlook B
2016 Billion CAD$ Outlook B
2016 $45
2017 $50
2018 $52
2019 $53
2020 $55
2021 $56
2022 $57
2023 $57
2024 $58
2025 $58
2026 $59
2027 $59
2028 $60
2029 $61
2030 $62
2031 $62
2032 $63
2033 $63
2034 $64
2035 $65

Figure 41: Drivers of System Cost Increases 2016 to 2035

Data Table for Figure 41: Drivers of System Cost Increases 2016 to 2035 - Total Cost Change (2016 Bill CAD$)
Drivers 2016 2035 Delta %
All Other Fuels 26 28 1 7%
Carbon Liability 0 5 5 23%
Other Transportation Fuels 3 7 5 25%
Diesel 11 18 7 34%
Natural Gas 5 8 2 11%

Figure 42: Average Unit Cost of Natural Gas and Transportation Fuels in Outlook B

Data Table for Figure 42: Average Unit Cost of Natural Gas and Transportation Fuels in Outlook B
Year Natural Gas & RNG (Consumption, PJ) Transportation Fuels (Consumption, PJ) Natural Gas & RNG Unit Cost ($/GJ) Transportation Fuels Unit Cost ($/GJ)
2016 862 938 $6 $36
2017 854 945 $8 $38
2018 857 956 $8 $40
2019 856 960 $9 $41
2020 858 966 $9 $41
2021 855 965 $9 $42
2022 856 967 $9 $43
2023 851 964 $9 $43
2024 853 964 $9 $44
2025 852 961 $9 $44
2026 852 962 $10 $45
2027 850 959 $10 $45
2028 852 961 $10 $46
2029 853 960 $10 $46
2030 857 963 $10 $47
2031 857 963 $10 $47
2032 861 966 $10 $48
2033 863 967 $10 $48
2034 866 971 $10 $48
2035 873 975 $10 $49

Figure 43: Cost of Fuels Energy Across Demand Outlooks

Data Table for Figure 43: Cost of Fuels Energy Across Demand Outlooks
2035 Demand Outlook B Demand Outlook C Demand Outlook D Demand Outlook E Demand Outlook F
Total Cost (2016 CAD$ Billions) $65 $57 $56 $57 $55
Unit Cost (2016 CAD/$GJ) $27.3 $27.5 $28.8 $27.8 $29.6
Energy Demand (PJ) 2,377 2,070 1,931 2,037 1,843