Ontario’s Long-Term Report on the Economy 2024
Learn about Ontario’s long-term economic opportunities and challenges, May 2024.
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Introduction
In accordance with the Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019, Ontario’s Long-Term Report on the Economy presents a long-range assessment of Ontario’s economic and fiscal environment.
This report:
- Describes anticipated changes in the economy and in population demographics over the next 20 years;
- Outlines the potential impact of these changes on the public sector and on Ontario’s fiscal policy during that period; and
- Analyzes key fiscal policy issues that the Minister of Finance believes are likely to affect the long-term sustainability of the economy and of the public sector.
Looking beyond Ontario’s current economic and fiscal environment allows the government to focus on long-term decision-making. The decisions it makes in the next few years will prepare Ontario to deal with the opportunities and challenges of the coming decades. While the future can never be known in detail, it is useful to assess the broad trends that will shape Ontario’s economic and fiscal environment.
These trends include:
- Continued rapid increase in the provincial population driven by immigrants and non-permanent residents to be concentrated in metropolitan areas;
- Population aging with an increase in the number of seniors and aging within the 65+ age group;
- Slower growth of the provincial economy compared to the historical trend, reflecting slower labour force growth driven in part by an aging population;
- Productivity projected to grow slightly slower than its historical average over the long-term outlook;
- Slower long-term growth in government revenues due to a projected easing in economic growth; and
- Faster increase in the demand for public services compared to overall economic growth.
This report considers these and other forces that will affect Ontario over the next two decades and examines their implications for Ontario’s long-term economic and fiscal prospects.
In addition, the report explores the pivotal role of infrastructure to foster and support growth, including the importance of continued investments in infrastructure over the next ten years. Opportunities to harness Ontario’s sectoral strengths to increase economic growth and improve the province’s productivity performance are also highlighted, as well as the role of innovation to drive growth in these sectors and across the economy.
